Putin sets stage for return as Russian president

[Reuters]

By Thomas Grove and Gleb Bryanski

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has ended months of speculation by saying he will run for president next March in an election that could open the way for him to stay in power for 12 more years.

Putin's announcement was greeted by a standing ovation on Saturday at a congress of his ruling United Russia party, but it alarmed critics who say his return to the presidency could herald an era of political and economic stagnation.

He and President Dmitry Medvedev have ruled in a power 'tandem' since Putin was forced by the constitution to yield the presidency in 2008 after serving a maximum two consecutive terms.

Putin, 58, accepted a proposal by Medvedev to return as president in the carefully choreographed congress in a Moscow sports stadium.

"I want to say directly: (Medvedev and I) reached an agreement between ourselves long ago, several years ago, on what to do in the future, on who should do what," Putin said.

"But both I and Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev believe that this is far from being the most important thing -- who will do what, who will sit in what place. What is far more important is something else: how we will all work, what results we achieve, and what the citizens of our country think of this."

Over 11 years in power, Putin has cultivated the image of a vigorous leader and been filmed riding bare-chested on horseback, scuba diving and showing off his judo skills. His policies -- crushing a Chechen separatist rebellion, taming super-rich businessmen and bringing wayward regions to heel -- have similarly won him popularity among Russians.

Putin, described in leaked U.S. diplomatic cables as the "Alpha dog" in the tandem, proposed his younger and more liberal protege replace him as prime minister after the election to lead a young reformist government.

FEARS OF STAGNATION

But critics say his return to the Kremlin, virtually unopposed, could bring back memories of the economic and political stagnation under Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev in the 1970s and early 1980s.

"It's a sign of growing stagnation in the Russian political elite and it means that Mr. Putin, if elected, can rule for another 12 years until 2024," said Yevgeny Volk, deputy director of the Yeltsin Foundation.

The next president will be elected for six years and the constitution still allows the head of state a maximum of two straight terms -- meaning Putin could be in power for another 12 years.

Washington said it expected to keep making progress in the "reset" in relations with Moscow, whoever was the next Russian president.

"While we have had a very strong working relationship with President Medvedev, it's worth noting that Vladimir Putin was prime minister throughout the reset," White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said.

Putin proposed Medvedev, 46, to lead United Russia's list of candidates for a parliamentary election on December 4.

The move is intended to help reverse a decline in support for United Russia and boost its hopes of retaining a two-thirds majority in the State Duma lower house.

Investors had been urging that Putin and Medvedev put an end to the political uncertainty that has deterred many from putting money into the $1.5 trillion economy of the world's largest energy producer.

"Market turmoil has hit Russia hard," said Charles Robertson, head of macro-strategy at emerging markets investment bank Renaissance Capital.

"With less political uncertainty, the authorities may hope that capital flight eases, and that some may return capital in coming months to take advantage of cheaper asset prices."

As president from 2000 to 2008, Putin oversaw an economic boom where household incomes improved on the back of a rise in global oil prices, and his tough talking and macho image helped restore Russia's self-confidence on the world stage.

But Putin, who was once a KGB officer in East Germany, is widely seen as more conservative than Medvedev and critics accuse him of riding roughshod over human rights and democracy, and expanding the power of the security forces.

Some economists say his return to the Kremlin makes it less likely that Russia will carry out much-needed changes such as pension reforms and reducing Russia's dependency on natural resources. Oil and gas revenues make up half the budget.

Others say Putin and Medvedev differ more in style than policy.

(Reporting by Timothy Heritage, Guy Faulconbridge, Gleb Bryanski, Steve Gutterman, Alexei Anishchuk, Douglas Busvine and Thomas Grove; editing by Ralph Boulton and Kevin Liffey)

[New York Times]

September 25, 2011
By ANDREW E. KRAMER

MOSCOW — A senior member of the Russian government opened a rare public breach with the Kremlin on Sunday, saying he would refuse to stay on under the leadership shuffle that was announced over the weekend, in which the president and prime minister will change places.

The official, Aleksei L. Kudrin, Russia’s long-serving finance minister, said he would no longer work in the government if President Dmitri A. Medvedev became prime minister, citing what he said were irresponsible spending decisions by Mr. Medvedev.

Mr. Kudrin’s remarks were the first to suggest that the leadership swap announced Saturday, which sent a ripple of surprise among senior ministers, could lead to turmoil and a reorganization at the highest levels of government.

Several Russian officials said Sunday that they had no warning of the decision that Vladimir V. Putin planned to return as president after elections in March, which he is assured of winning, and appoint Mr. Medvedev as prime minister, despite Mr. Putin’s assertion on Saturday that that deal had been sealed “several years ago.”

The change means that all ministers will report to Mr. Medvedev, suddenly a diminished figure in Russian politics.

Mr. Kudrin has close ties with Mr. Putin, and he was said to be a top candidate for prime minister himself.

“I do not see myself in the new government,” he said in remarks that were reported by Russian news agencies on Sunday. “It is not just that I have not been offered the job, but I think that those differences of opinion that I have, they do not allow me to join this government.”

Speaking on the sidelines of a meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington, he added, “I have differences with Medvedev on economic policy; they basically have to do with considerable spending on military goals.”

His comments laid bare the tension that has been kept under wraps while Russian leaders negotiated a reshuffle at the top of the government. Some analysts and former officials said Mr. Kudrin might feel that he had been sidelined.

“Kudrin is expanding his status and authority by explaining that he will only work directly with Putin,” Mikhail M. Kasyanov, who served as prime minister under Mr. Putin from 2000 until 2004, said in a telephone interview. “He is minimizing his dependence on Medvedev.”

Before the announcement, “nobody knew” of the planned swap, said Mr. Kasyanov, who now leads an opposition group, the People’s Freedom Party. “Putin conducts everything as if in the framework of a special operation. He doesn’t let anybody know, and nobody knew.”

A first deputy prime minister, Igor Shuvalov, confirmed in comments carried by Interfax that ministers had indeed been kept in the dark.

“We didn’t know,” he said. “If you think that someone had known about what was announced yesterday, it is not so. The leaders did not share information on this issue with us, of course; they didn’t discuss it with us. They discussed it among themselves.”

Mr. Kudrin’s threat injects uncertainty into the new government structure outlined Saturday. He has been an essential player on Mr. Putin’s governing team for two decades. Foreign investors consider him to be an important proponent of privatization and other reforms, as well as a hedge against financial chaos.

Government officials hastened to play down the seriousness of Mr. Kudrin’s criticism of Mr. Medvedev.

Mr. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, told journalists that Mr. Kudrin would “remain on Mr. Putin’s team.”

Natalya Timakova, Mr. Medvedev’s spokeswoman, said it was too early to discuss the composition of the new government. “If somebody is ready to leave earlier, he always has that opportunity,” she said. “You don’t have to wait for the new government to form before signing a letter of resignation.”

Mr. Kudrin explained that he objected to Mr. Medvedev’s approval of a $65 billion increase in military spending over three years. Just the increase, he said, would equal Russia’s total expenditure on education at all levels, including universities.

He said the decisions pose macroeconomic as well budgetary risks.

Mr. Kudrin also warned that Russia’s pension fund has a deficit of $31 billion, endangering reforms that began in 2008. The next government, he said, “will have to address these problems, including balancing the budgetary system, lowering risks in the macroeconomic sphere. In this case Medvedev’s new team will have to solve these problems.”

He said it was too early to say whether he would accept a position reporting to Mr. Putin. Mr. Kudrin could also take a position at the Central Bank.

Mr. Kudrin was one of the St. Petersburg officials who helped bring Mr. Putin to Moscow, setting the stage for his rise through the Russian political system. He served as Mr. Putin’s finance minister and made it his mission to steer oil revenues into a stabilization fund, creating influential enemies behind the scenes. His position was vindicated in 2008, when Russia weathered the financial crisis, leaving his position more secure than ever.

Ellen Barry contributed reporting.

[Do Do]

By LYNN BERRY | Associated Press:

Russia's Prime Minister and President-elect Vladimir Putin talks to the media at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow May 3, 2012. REUTERS/Alexsey Druginyn/RIA Novosti/Pool


MOSCOW (AP) — Vladimir Putin's return to the presidency on Monday will technically give him greater powers than he wielded as prime minister. The irony is that his position will be arguably weaker than at any time since he first came to power more than 12 years ago.

In part because of the heavy-handed way in which he reclaimed the presidency, Putin finds himself the leader of a changed country, where a growing portion of society is no longer willing to silently tolerate a government that denies its citizens a political voice.

How Putin responds to the calls for free elections and accountable government will help define his next six years in office and to a great extent determine the future of Russia itself.

The pressure on Putin began to build in the months ahead of the March presidential election as a series of protests drew tens of thousands onto the streets of Moscow. Although the number of protesters has dwindled since the vote and expectations were low for an opposition rally on Sunday, the protest movement has led to real change in Russia.

In response to the demonstrations, the Kremlin has agreed to allow more political competition in future elections. National television channels have slightly opened up, expanding beyond their role as a Kremlin propaganda arm. Even some members of the Kremlin-controlled parliament have become more willing to challenge Kremlin legislation.

Equally significant, the protests have roused a new generation of Russians out of their political apathy and brought forth a civic awakening that already has led to greater involvement in local politics.

During the past four years, the presence of the younger and seemingly more liberal President Dmitry Medvedev allowed people to hope that change was possible, even though everyone understood that Putin was still in charge as prime minister.

Medvedev promised to fight corruption, make the courts more independent and modernize the economy, but in the end nothing really improved. His empty words only made the problems more obvious and fed social dissatisfaction.

When Medvedev announced in September that he was stepping aside to allow Putin to take back the presidency, many Russians were offended by the implication that their votes were considered just a formality.

Two months later, Putin was greeted with catcalls at a Moscow sports arena, an unprecedented rebuke that an opposition leader described as "the end of an era."

The anger burst out onto the streets after a December parliamentary election that was won by Putin's party with the help of what observers said was widespread fraud.

Putin seemed stunned by the sudden outburst of discontent, but he quickly fought back. He portrayed the protest leaders as in the pay of the Americans and intent on bringing about a revolution that would take Russia back to the instability and humiliations of the 1990s. With Kremlin-controlled television still the main source of information for most Russians, many believed him.

Even some who have soured on Putin say he is the only one capable of leading the country. They see no viable alternative and believe that Russia needs a strong hand.

After coming to power in 2000, Putin steadily neutered all other political institutions and sidelined those who challenged his centralized control, either by barring them from running in elections, driving them into exile or sending them to languish in prison.

Putin thus prevented the emergence of any strong figure who could unite those who oppose his rule.

To establish control across the vast country, he abolished gubernatorial elections and made the governors dependent on the Kremlin.

As a result of the protests, Putin agreed to restore direct elections for governors, although provisions in the new law have raised fears that he will still be able to determine who is allowed to run.

Putin also agreed to make it easier for opposition political parties to take part in elections. This presents an opportunity and a challenge for the opposition, which has until the next parliamentary election in 2016 to form a few viable parties from among the wide array of leftist and liberal groups.

In the meantime, the opposition has turned its attention to municipal elections and already can claim some success. The first competitive elections for governors are still ahead.

For Putin, the challenge is to allow just enough gradual change to keep social discontent in check while still maintaining control. It may prove to be a difficult balance. Any real reform of the top-down system he built could bring it all crashing down.

On the surface, not much has changed in Russia. Putin is still in charge and he still largely controls the oil and gas wealth that props up Russia's economy. Many expect Putin, who turns 60 this year, to seek a fourth term to extend his presidency through 2024.

But Russia's society has changed and the country's future looks far more uncertain than it did just a few months ago.

[Do Do]

By NATALIYA VASILYEVA | Associated Press:

MOSCOW (AP) — Russia's President Vladimir Putin will skip a planned visit to the United States this month for a key global summit and a much-anticipated meeting with President Barack Obama, the Kremlin confirmed Thursday, as he faced pressure from protests and opposition criticism at home.

The White House announced Wednesday that Putin is unable to join the other leaders of the Group of Eight industrial nations meeting outside Washington on May 18-19. The Kremlin said Putin needs to finish work setting up his new government.

Instead, Russia will send Dmitry Medvedev, the former president and new prime minister, to the G8 summit.

The Kremlin said that Obama expressed "understanding" for Putin's cancellation, and the two are now due to meet at another global summit in Mexico in mid-June.

Putin took power this week, returning after four years to a post he had previously held for two terms. He made sharp criticism of the United States a central theme in his election, but it is not clear whether he will pull back from Medvedev's efforts at cooperation with the U.S. in several areas.

Interviewed on Thursday by the Ekho Moskvy radio station, Putin's aide Arkady Dvorkovich rejected suggestions that Putin is avoiding the U.S. visit because of potential questions about human rights violations in Russia.

"I don't think that Putin is scared of anything linked to politics," Dvorkovich said. "This is laughable. These are just idle thoughts that have nothing to do with reality."

Putin's inauguration on Monday was marred by violence at an opposition rally the day before when protesters tried to move to another, unsanctioned, location. Police dispersed the rally and detained hundreds.

Since Sunday, hundreds of protesters have been staging flash mobs across the city with police breaking up and regularly detaining many of them. Two key leaders of this "people's stroll", Alexei Navalny and Sergei Udaltsov, were sentenced to 15 days in jail on Wednesday for disobeying police orders.

Separately, many opposition groups have decried Putin's decision to provide a logistics facility in central Russia to NATO as a betrayal of national interests. The facility in Ulyanovsk is to support the U.S.-led mission in Afghanistan

Russia does not border on Afghanistan. But the two countries are separated only by former Soviet Central Asian republics that have porous borders with Russia and Afghanistan.

Putin is also facing criticism for Russia's impending membership in the World Trade Organization. Hailed by some as a long-awaited achievement, the WTO membership have caused concerns in Russia that the country's new trade status will hurt heavily subsidized industries, including agriculture.